Can you count cards at baccarat?
In theory yes; in practice the main bets barely move. Dragon 7 is the famous exception.
Open this lesson in baccaratton — free, play money
In blackjack, counting works because the cards left in the shoe can swing the edge to the player. Baccarat is dealt from a shoe too, so does the same trick work?
For the main bets, effectively no. Every card dealt shifts the odds a little, but the Banker and Player hands use the same cards and the shifts cancel almost perfectly. Removing one card from a fresh shoe moves the Banker EV by at most 0.012%. A huge imbalance is needed to overcome a 1.06% edge.
| One card removed (8 decks) | Banker EV changes by | Player EV changes by |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | +0.0116% | −0.0120% |
| 3 | +0.0065% | −0.0067% |
| 6 | −0.0113% | +0.0113% |
| 5 | −0.0083% | +0.0084% |
In our simulation of a real shoe (burn, cut card 16 from the end, one more hand after it), with perfect knowledge of every card left, the Banker bet was in your favour in about 1 hand in 500, and then only by about 0.4%. Betting $100 only on those hands would earn about 5 cents an hour (≈ simulated). Even with 52 cards left, no 4s and eight 6s, the Banker is still at −0.46%.
The exception: Dragon 7. The EZ side bet that pays 40 to 1 on a Banker three-card 7 is far more sensitive. 8s and 9s left in the shoe hurt it (they make naturals and spoil three-card 7s), and 4s to 7s help it. The best-known count (Eliot Jacobson's, from "Card Counting the Dragon Bet") is:
| Card seen | 4, 5, 6, 7 | 8, 9 | Others |
|---|---|---|---|
| Count | −1 | +2 | 0 |
Divide the running count by the decks left. When it's +4 or more, the Dragon 7 has an edge for the player. In our simulation that happened on about 9% of hands, worth about +8% per bet on those hands: roughly $13 an hour for a $25 Dragon 7 bettor (≈ simulated).
That's real, but casinos know it. They cap Dragon 7 bets, watch players who bet it only late in the shoe, and can shuffle at will. Counting the Dragon 7 is legal, but it isn't welcome.
The Shoe tracker. Turn it on in Settings, or here in the scene. It shows the exact EV of every bet for the cards left in this shoe, updated after each hand. The normal EV sheet always shows the fresh-shoe price. Watch the tracker for a few shoes and you'll see the main bets hardly move, while Dragon 7 and Panda 8 swing.
Show the math: How the tracker computes EV
The tracker runs the same exact enumeration as the reference tables, over the unseen cards: everything not yet shown. The face-down burn cards are still unseen, so they count as in the shoe. Each result is exact for that composition. Effects of removal (fresh 8 decks, % per card, Dragon 7): 0s +0.086, A +0.050, 2 −0.090, 3 −0.108, 4 −0.268, 5 −0.263, 6 −0.324, 7 −0.358, 8 +0.538, 9 +0.479. The count's signs follow these, as in Jacobson's table. Simulation (≈): 3,000 shoes, 243,382 hands, exact EV before every hand. Banker +EV in about 0.19% of hands (average about +0.4% when positive). Dragon 7 +EV in about 11.5% of hands, Panda 8 in about 5%. With the count at a true +4 or more: about 9.2% of hands, average about +7.6% to +7.8% per bet (two independent runs).
Quiz
Why doesn't card counting work for Banker and Player?
- Counting is illegal
- Each card moves their EV by only about 0.01%, so the edge almost never flips
- The shoe is reshuffled every hand
- The dealer hides the cards
Show the answer
B: Each card moves their EV by only about 0.01%, so the edge almost never flips. The effects are tiny and largely cancel. Positive spots are rare and small.
Quiz
Which cards remaining in the shoe are bad for the Dragon 7?
- 4s to 7s
- 8s and 9s
- Tens and faces
- Aces
Show the answer
B: 8s and 9s. 8s and 9s make naturals and break three-card 7s. When they've been used up, Dragon 7 improves.
Quiz
What does the EV sheet show, compared with the Shoe tracker?
- Both show this shoe
- The sheet shows the fresh-shoe price; the tracker shows the cards left
- The tracker is an estimate
Show the answer
B: The sheet shows the fresh-shoe price; the tracker shows the cards left. Both are exact. The sheet is for a full shoe, and the tracker for the cards still unseen.