What common habits really cost
The leaks players actually have, priced exactly.
Each line below is a whole strategy played the same way every hand, with everything else perfect. The figures are exact, at a $10 Ante and 30 hands an hour.
| Habit | House edge per Ante | Cost per hour | Extra vs perfect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perfect play | 2.19% | $6.55 | — |
| Basic card | 2.38% | $7.14 | $0.59 |
| Simple card | 2.71% | $8.12 | $1.57 |
| 4x only with pairs and aces | 5.65% | $16.94 | $10.39 |
| Never bet 2x on the flop | 9.42% | $28.26 | $21.70 |
| Bet 3x instead of 4x | 9.86% | $29.58 | $23.02 |
| Check to the river, then play perfectly | 32.03% | $96.10 | $89.55 |
| Never fold (check, check, always 1x) | 40.70% | $122.11 | $115.56 |
| Bet 4x on every hand | 40.70% | $122.11 | $115.56 |
| Check to the river, bet 1x only with a hidden pair | 50.04% | $150.11 | $143.55 |
Three lessons hide in that table.
- Waiting is expensive. "I'll see all the cards first" sounds careful, but it multiplies your cost by almost 15. The 4x and 2x bets are where your edge comes from. Strong hands need big bets early.
- Folding is a skill. Never folding costs nearly as much as betting 4x on every hand. In fact, both cost exactly the same, because if you play every hand to the end, the Play bet is a coin flip and only its size changes.
- Bet size matters. 3x leaves a quarter of your best bets on the table. Always choose 4x when you raise preflop.
Quiz
Which habit costs the most?
- Betting 3x instead of 4x
- Checking every hand to the river and playing only with a hidden pair
- Using the basic card
- Never betting the flop
Show the answer
B: Checking every hand to the river and playing only with a hidden pair. 50% of the Ante: about $150 an hour at $10.
Quiz
Why do "never fold" and "bet 4x every hand" cost exactly the same?
- Coincidence
- If every hand goes to showdown, the Play bet is a coin flip, so its size doesn't change the EV
- Because the Blind pays the same
- They don't
Show the answer
B: If every hand goes to showdown, the Play bet is a coin flip, so its size doesn't change the EV. Over every possible deal you win and lose equally often, so the Play bet's EV is zero at any size.
Quiz
The best fix for a player who checks every hand to the river is…
- Fold more
- Bet 4x preflop with the chart hands
- Add the Trips bet
- Bet 3x instead
Show the answer
B: Bet 4x preflop with the chart hands. Early raises with strong hands are where the game's value is.