Know the Odds holdumb Ultimate Texas Hold'em

Preflop close calls

Lesson 8 of 23 · Perfect strategy I: lowest edge · 6 min read

Where the chart's edges are, and how little they matter.

Every chart has edges. Here are UTH's, with the exact EVs (in antes) of both choices:

Hand Bet 4x Check Best Margin
K5o −0.118 −0.151 4x 0.034
K4o −0.229 −0.206 Check 0.023
K2s −0.075 −0.080 4x 0.005
Q8o −0.069 −0.093 4x 0.023
Q7o −0.278 −0.209 Check 0.068
Q6s −0.006 −0.028 4x 0.022
Q5s −0.096 −0.074 Check 0.021
J8s +0.107 +0.096 4x 0.011
J7s −0.107 −0.034 Check 0.072
JTo +0.174 +0.110 4x 0.064
J9o −0.070 −0.039 Check 0.031
33 +0.088 +0.007 4x 0.081
22 −0.288 −0.179 Check 0.108
T9s +0.185 +0.205 Check 0.020

Two things stand out.

4x can be right when it loses money. loses 0.118 antes on average if you bet 4x, but it loses 0.151 if you check. You paid your Ante and Blind already, so the question is never "is this hand a winner?" It's "which option loses least, or wins most?"

Close calls are cheap. Get K4o wrong every single time it's dealt, and you give up about 6¢ an hour at a $10 Ante. Check pocket aces instead of betting 4x, and you give up $1.91 an hour, on a hand you only see once every 221 deals. Learn the big hands first, and the edges second.

Show the math: How "per hour" is worked out for one hand

Cost per hour = hands per hour × P(this hand) × cost per time × Ante. K4o: 30 × (12/1,326) × 0.0228 × $10 ≈ $0.06. Pocket aces checked: 30 × (6/1,326) × 1.408 × $10 ≈ $1.91. Betting 4x with 7-2 offsuit every time: 30 × (12/1,326) × 1.235 × $10 ≈ $3.35.

Quiz

Betting 4x with K5o has a negative EV (−0.118 antes). Why is it still the best play?

  1. It isn't, you should check
  2. Checking loses even more (−0.151)
  3. Because the Blind might pay
  4. Because kings are high cards
Show the answer

B: Checking loses even more (−0.151). Your Ante and Blind are already in. Pick the option that loses least.

Quiz

Which is the best preflop play?

  1. Bet 4x
  2. Bet 3x
  3. Check
Show the answer

A: Bet 4x. Suited jacks need an 8 or better: J8s+. It's close (0.011 antes), but 4x.

Quiz

Which mistake costs more per hour at the same table?

  1. Betting 4x with K4o every time
  2. Checking pocket aces every time
Show the answer

B: Checking pocket aces every time. About $1.91 an hour for the aces vs about 6¢ for K4o, at $10 and 30 hands an hour.

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