Why the Banker wins more often
Acting last is worth 1.24%, and the commission takes it back and a bit more.
Open this lesson in baccaratton — free, play money
The two hands aren't treated equally. The Player follows a blind rule (0–5 draws). The Banker acts after seeing what the Player did, and in lesson 5 you saw how its table reacts to the Player's third card. That small information edge means the Banker wins a bit more often:
| Result | How often (8 decks) |
|---|---|
| Banker wins | 45.86% |
| Player wins | 44.62% |
| Tie | 9.52% |
Leave out the ties, and the Banker wins 50.68% of the hands that are decided.
If Banker paid even money, it would be a winning bet for you: +1.24%, exactly the mirror of the Player bet's −1.24%. Casinos fix that with the 5% commission. A Banker win then pays 95¢, and the bet goes from +1.24% to −1.06%.
So both bets lose in the long run, but the Banker bet loses less: about 1.06¢ per dollar against 1.24¢. Paying the commission feels like a cost, and it is, but it's smaller than the price of betting on the hand that wins less often.
Show the math: Where the commission sits
With the commission c, EV(Banker) = (1 − c) × P(Banker) − P(Player). At c = 0: +241149546272/19524993263685 ≈ +1.2351% (exactly minus EV(Player)). At c = 5%: −1.0579%. The bet breaks even at c = 1 − P(Player)/P(Banker) = 7535923321/279815987114 ≈ 2.69%. Some casinos charge 4%, which gives an edge of 2925372930848/488124831592125 ≈ 0.5993% (lesson 12).
Quiz
Why does the Banker win more often than the Player?
- The dealer favours it
- It acts last, with a rule that reacts to the Player's third card
- It gets an extra card
- It doesn't: they win equally
Show the answer
B: It acts last, with a rule that reacts to the Player's third card. The Banker's rule uses the information from the Player's draw.
Quiz
Without commission, what would the Banker bet's edge be?
- The house would still have 1.06%
- Zero
- About 1.24% in your favour
- About 5% in your favour
Show the answer
C: About 1.24% in your favour. Banker at even money would be the exact mirror of Player: +1.24% for you.
Quiz
After commission, which bet costs less?
- Player
- Banker
- They're equal
Show the answer
B: Banker. Banker 1.06% vs Player 1.24%.