The Tie bet: 8 to 1 isn't enough
Ties come about 1 hand in 10.5, so 8 to 1 is short.
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Ties feel common, and they are: about 9.5% of hands, roughly one in every 10.5. So why is the Tie bet the worst of the three?
Picture 1,000 hands with $1 on Tie each time. About 95 are ties (95.2), each paying $8: about $761 in winnings. The other 905 lose $1 each: −$905. Net: about −$144 per 1,000 hands, or 14.36% of every Tie bet.
For a fair bet, a tie would have to pay about 9.5 to 1. At 8 to 1 the casino keeps the difference. Some casinos pay 9 to 1 on ties. That cuts the edge to 4.84%: much better, but still more than four times the Banker bet.
| Tie pays | House edge | Cost per hour at $10, 72 hands/hour |
|---|---|---|
| 8 to 1 (default) | 14.36% | $103.39 |
| 9 to 1 | 4.84% | $34.88 |
| (Banker, for comparison) | 1.06% | $7.62 |
A Tie bet also swings hard. It loses about 9 hands out of 10, then pays big. That's part of its appeal, and lesson 22 prices that fun honestly.
Show the math: Tie, exactly
P(Tie) = 619306544887/6508331087895 ≈ 0.0951560, about 1 in 10.51. 8:1: EV = 9 × P(Tie) − 1 = −103841353768/723147898655 ≈ −14.3596%. 9:1: EV = 10 × P(Tie) − 1 = −63053127805/1301666217579 ≈ −4.8440%. Break-even payout: 1/P(Tie) − 1 ≈ 9.509 to 1.
Quiz
About how often is a hand a tie?
- 1 in 3
- 1 in 10.5
- 1 in 20
- 1 in 100
Show the answer
B: 1 in 10.5. 9.52% of hands, about 1 in 10.5.
Quiz
What payout would make the Tie bet fair?
- 8 to 1
- About 9.5 to 1
- 10 to 1 exactly
- 11 to 1
Show the answer
B: About 9.5 to 1. 1 ÷ 0.0952 − 1 ≈ 9.51.
Quiz
Your casino pays 9 to 1 on ties. What's the edge?
- 14.36%
- 4.84%
- 1.06%
- 0%
Show the answer
B: 4.84%. Much better than 8 to 1, but still over four times the Banker bet.
Quiz
At $10 a hand and 72 hands an hour, what does an 8 to 1 Tie bet cost per hour on average?
- About $7.62
- About $34.88
- About $103
- About $14
Show the answer
C: About $103. 72 × $10 × 14.36% ≈ $103.39.