Myths, systems and dice control

Chapter 4: The math that matters · Lesson 16 of 21 · 5 min read

No betting system changes the house edge. Spot the gambler's fallacy and weigh dice control honestly.

Craps attracts more systems and superstitions than any other casino game. Here's the honest list.

"Double up after a loss" (Martingale) and other progressions. Every bet in a progression has the same negative EV, so their sum is negative too. A progression trades many small wins for a rare huge loss, which shows up when you hit the table maximum or your bankroll runs out. The average is unchanged.

"The 7 is due" / "the 6 is hot." Dice have no memory. After five 8s in a row, the next roll is still 5/36 for an 8 and 6/36 for a 7. Past rolls never change future chances.

"Hedging protects you." Adding Any Craps "to protect" your Pass bet on the come-out adds an 11.1% bet on top of a 1.41% one. You've paid twice. A hedge reduces swings at a price; it never improves EV.

"Iron Cross can't lose." It wins on every total except 7. But 7 is the most common total, and when it lands you lose everything at once. It costs about $27 an hour (see lesson 20).

"Don't bettors cool the table." The Don't player's bets have no effect on the dice. It's purely social.

Dice control ("setting" the dice). Some players set the dice in a pattern and try a soft, controlled throw. Rules require the dice to hit the textured back wall, which randomises them, and there is no independent, controlled study showing anyone can beat the dice reliably. Treat it as a ritual, not a strategy. The simulator's dice are fair random numbers.

The bottom line: in craps, every combination of bets has an EV equal to the sum of the EVs of its parts. You can't build a positive bet out of negative ones. "Perfect strategy" is about paying as little as possible for the game you want to play.