Perfect strategy II: low edge, real life
Chapter 6: Perfect strategy · Lesson 19 of 21 · 9 min read
The practical lens. A near-minimum-edge plan that fits your bankroll, your temperament and the table.
Pure math says Don't + max odds. Real life adds budget, nerves and a table full of people. Here's the practical perfect strategy: still near the minimum edge, and built for an actual evening.
The core plan (right side)
- Pass Line at the table minimum.
- Take odds: the maximum if your bankroll allows, otherwise 2× (0.61%) or 1× (0.85%). Prefer smaller flat bets with more odds over bigger flat bets with less odds.
- Want more numbers working? Add one or two Come bets with odds. Or, as the acceptable alternative, place the 6 and 8 in $6 units (1.52%, and quick, with no waiting for a bet to travel).
- Want the 4 or 10? Buy them for $20 or more (1.67% with vig on win). Never place them (6.67%).
- Skip the Field, Big 6/8, hardways and every center bet.
Do or Don't?
| Right (Pass/Come) | Dark (Don't Pass/Don't Come) | |
|---|---|---|
| Edge with full odds | 0.37% | 0.27% |
| Feel | Win with the table; big cheers on hot rolls | Win against the table; quiet celebrations |
| How results come | Many small losses, occasional big wins | Many small wins, occasional big losses |
| Money needed for full odds | Smaller (odds ≤ 5× the flat bet) | Larger (lay 6× the flat bet) |
The difference is 0.1% of action. In dollars it's about $0.15 an hour at $10 ($4.19 for Pass vs $4.04 for Don't Pass). Choose the side you'll enjoy and stick to it calmly.
Session planning, at a $10 table (about 100 rolls an hour)
| Plan | Edge per $ bet | Expected cost/hour | Typical hourly swing | Bankroll for ~1 hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10 Pass, no odds | 1.41% | $4.19 | ±$55 | $100–150 |
| $10 Pass + 2× odds | 0.61% | $4.19 | ±$155 | $300–400 |
| $10 Pass + 3-4-5× | 0.37% | $4.19 | ±$265 | $500–800 |
| $10 Don't + 6× lay | 0.27% | $4.04 | ±$265 | $500–800 |
| $6 Place 6 + $6 Place 8 | 1.52% | $3.91 | ±$50 | $100–150 |
Plan rules that work:
- Decide your bankroll before you sit down, and make your odds level fit it.
- Set a loss limit (for example, the whole session bankroll) and a time limit.
- A win goal ("I'll stop if I'm up $200") doesn't change EV, but it makes good nights end as good nights.
- Comps: casinos rate your play by bet size and time, usually at an average edge, and often without counting odds. A small flat bet with big odds gets you cheap action and decent ratings.
Show the math: Behind the planning table
Expected cost/hour = $10 × 1.414% × 29.6 decisions ≈ $4.19 for every Pass plan (odds add 0); Don't = $10 × 1.364% × 29.6 ≈ $4.04, so the hourly gap is $4.19 − $4.04 = $0.15; Place 6 + 8 = $12 × 0.463% × 70.4 rolls ≈ $3.91. Swings and bankrolls come from 40,000 simulated 100-roll hours (see lesson 15). "Bankroll for ~1 hour" ≈ the 7%-to-under-1% risk of ruin range.
Start with a side-by-side: three practical plans on the same dice.
Three plans, same dice
Interactive practice table. Try this in the app (free, play money).
Then build the plan by hand: Pass, max odds, Place 6 and 8, and a buy for the 4.
Build the practical layout
Interactive practice table. Try this in the app (free, play money).
You can afford $10 Pass with 2× odds, or $20 Pass with no odds. Which has the lower expected cost?
- $20 Pass, no odds
- $10 Pass + 2× odds
- Equal
- Can't tell
Show answer
B: $10 Pass + 2× odds. Expected cost comes from the flat bet: $10 costs half of $20, and odds are free.
You want action on the 6 and 8 right away. The best practical choice is...
- Big 6 and Big 8
- Place 6 and 8 in $6 units
- Hard 6 and Hard 8
- Buy 6 and 8
Show answer
B: Place 6 and 8 in $6 units. Place 6/8 at 1.52% beats Buy 6/8 (2.27%), Big 6/8 (9.09%) and hardways (9.09%).
The main cost of choosing Pass over Don't Pass (both with full odds) is...
- Huge, avoid Pass
- About 0.1% of action, around 15¢ an hour at $10
- Nothing, they're equal
- Pass is cheaper
Show answer
B: About 0.1% of action, around 15¢ an hour at $10. 0.37% vs 0.27% per dollar bet; in dollars, $4.19 vs $4.04 an hour. A small price for many players' preference.