Roulette strategy research: what betting progressions can and cannot do
Can a roulette betting system beat the house? No. Every one of the 154 simulated setups in this research has a negative average result: the edge is a fixed cost on every dollar wagered, and no progression changes it. What a progression can change is the shape of the results: a ladder with a cash-out can make the typical session a small win (+$286 here, ending ahead 90.3% of the time) while the average stays negative (-$46.25) and the worst sessions get worse.
What the simulations found about betting progressions: what they can do for a typical session, what they cannot do for the average, and how to try the ideas yourself.
The research is a set of seeded Monte Carlo experiments run with spinner’s own engine: 10,000 sessions, $5,000 bankroll, up to 500 spins on a European wheel unless a chapter says otherwise, each finding checked against a closed-form prediction. In the app every chapter has an interactive chart; here each chart is a table of the values it plots.
Read the research in spinnerTest your own system
Headline findings
| Strategy | Typical session | Chance of ending ahead | Average | Worst 5 % of sessions | Ended broke |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat $25 on red | -$350 | 25.5% | -$338.21 | -$1,479.60 | 0.0% |
| Martingale on red | -$5,000 | 32.4% | -$898.23 | -$5,000 | 51.2% |
| Fibonacci on red | +$1,675 | 57.2% | -$783.73 | -$5,000 | 39.1% |
| c9, hybrid | +$1,540 | 67.1% | -$295.45 | -$4,820.13 | 0.0% |
| b3, stack | +$1,679 | 60.8% | -$320.90 | -$4,491.05 | 0.0% |
| a1, widen | +$1,494 | 55.1% | -$330.93 | -$3,380.37 | 0.0% |
| c9 with a cash-out and stop-loss | +$286 | 90.3% | -$46.25 | -$3,210.44 | 0.0% |
“Typical session” is the median net result, “average” the mean, and “worst 5 %” the mean of the worst 5 % of sessions.
The chapters
Chapter 0
Start here
You cannot change what roulette costs you, but you can choose what a typical session looks like, and a cash-out is what locks it in.
Chapter 1
Every dollar costs the same
Every dollar you bet costs 2.7 cents on average, no matter how you bet it: spreading $25 across the table only changes how far a session swings.
Chapter 2
Why doubling feels like it works
Doubling after each loss keeps the typical session ahead for a few hundred spins, until one long losing streak empties the ladder and the typical session falls to a loss.
Chapter 3
Levels, not luck
To keep a doubling ladder ahead for longer, give it more steps with a smaller base stake; a bigger bankroll on the same steps does not keep it ahead any longer.
Chapter 4
Beyond red: grow at the right rate
Off even money, doubling is the wrong raise: multiply each bet by 36 ÷ (36 − numbers covered), which is ×1.5 on a dozen, and the ladder lasts as long as the formula says.
Chapter 5
One curve rules them all
Your chance of finishing a session without losing the ladder depends on how many cycle profits your bankroll can absorb, not on which numbers you cover.
Chapter 6
Towers, shapes and favourite numbers
If you would rather play shapes, towers or favourite numbers, stack chips on a few streets and size the ladder to your bankroll: that stays ahead for 500 spins as well as anything we tested.
Chapter 7
Cash out: the stop that moves the typical session
Decide before you sit down how much profit you will walk away with: a modest target is reached most of the time, and a stop-loss at half the ladder limits the damage when it is not.
Chapter 8
What breaks it
The gain survives other seeds and a bigger bankroll, but long sessions, $25 table minimums and, for wide layouts, the double-zero wheel break the ladders; only the cash-out version shrugs off length and the wheel.
Chapter 9
Try it
Pick one of the three candidates, play it on a $1-minimum table from $5,000 for up to 500 spins, and judge it by the typical session, the average and the worst 5 % together.