Try it: three candidate ladders and a calculator
Pick one of the three candidates, play it on a $1-minimum table from $5,000 for up to 500 spins, and judge it by the typical session, the average and the worst 5 % together.
Chapter 9 of the spinner roulette research (chapters 0 to 9): Try it.
Each candidate has an Open in Define button below. It opens Define with the strategy, the $1-minimum table (outside minimum and inside minimum total), a $5,000 bankroll, 500 spins and the seed of the reporting row, so a run reproduces the numbers in this chapter. If you would rather start from the saved strategy file, paste it into Define’s JSON mode and set those table minimums yourself, because a strategy file cannot carry table limits.
After the run, read Analyze: the typical session, the chance of ending ahead, the average and the worst 5 % of sessions. Expect the average to be negative; that is the wheel, not a bug. Play only with money you can afford to lose.
Open this chapter in spinner, with the interactive chartsOpen Define
The numbers
| Candidate | Typical session | Ends ahead | Average | Worst 5 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keeper c9 + cash-out ($280 win, $2,460 loss) | +$286 (4 seeds: +$286 to +$286) | 90.3% (4 seeds: 89.8% to 90.3%) | -$46.25 (4 seeds: -$60.90 to -$46.25) | -$3,210.44 (4 seeds: -$3,214.18 to -$3,209.07) |
| Keeper c9: streets to 12, stacked | +$1,540 (4 seeds: +$1,537 to +$1,542) | 67.1% (4 seeds: 66.6% to 67.2%) | -$295.45 (4 seeds: -$326.25 to -$295.45) | -$4,820.13 (4 seeds: -$4,827.38 to -$4,819.17) |
| Keeper b3: two streets, 29 levels | +$1,679 (4 seeds: +$1,679 to +$1,698) | 60.8% (4 seeds: 60.8% to 62.1%) | -$320.90 (4 seeds: -$320.90 to -$245.78) | -$4,491.05 (4 seeds: -$4,491.05 to -$4,483.41) |
Takeaways
- Start with c9 with cash-out: it ends ahead about 90 % of the time, with the smallest average loss and the mildest worst 5 % of the three.
- Size your own ladder with the calculator before you play it.
- Every dollar you bet costs 2.7 cents on average, no matter how you bet it.
The math
The calculator uses the formulas of chapters 2 to 7. Inputs: coverage c, growth g (default 36/(36 − c)), base stake u, chip unit, table maximum, bankroll and session length S. Outputs: levels L, cap probability q = (1 − c/37)^L, the bankroll a full ladder consumes in level-0 stakes B = Σ g^k for k < L, the horizon n½ = ln 2 / (q·p), the never-capped share e^(−q·p·S), and with a cash-out of W cycle profits P(win) ≈ (1 − q)^W.
Pinned case: Martingale on red with 8 levels gives q = 0.0048 and n½ = 295. Check against the c9 cash-out: q = 0.00356 and W = 20 give 0.931 without the stop-loss (measured 93.2 %); the half-ladder stop-loss lowers it to 90.3 %, 89.9 %, 90.1 % and 89.8 % on four seeds, with means −$46.25, −$60.12, −$53.65, −$60.90 and CVaR 5 % −$3,210, −$3,214, −$3,212, −$3,209.
L = levels that fit the table maximum and the bankroll
B = Σ g^k (k = 0 … L − 1)
n½ = ln 2 / (q·p); P(win) ≈ (1 − q)^W