Does Martingale work in baccarat? Betting systems tested
No. Martingale doesn't change the house edge: every Banker bet still loses 1.06% on average, whatever came before. What it changes is how much you bet. With a $10 unit, flat Banker bets $10 a hand and costs $7.62 an hour (72 hands); Martingale's average bet is $33.24, so it costs $25.32 an hour, and about once every 141 series 7 losses in a row lose $1,270.
Run these systems on auto-play in baccaratton — free, play money
Does any betting system beat the house edge?
No betting system changes the house edge. Each bet still loses its edge on average, so the expected cost is the house edge times the total amount bet. What a system changes is how much you bet, and so how much you lose on average.
What does each baccarat betting system cost per hour?
| System | Average bet | Expected cost per hour | Versus flat Banker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flat Banker | $10.00 | $7.62 | 1.0× |
| Flat Player | $10.00 | $8.89 | 1.2× |
| Paroli | $17.13 | $13.05 | 1.7× |
| 1-3-2-6 | $19.98 | $15.22 | 2.0× |
| Fibonacci | $24.56 | $18.71 | 2.5× |
| Martingale | $33.24 | $25.32 | 3.3× |
| D'Alembert | $45.73 | $34.84 | 4.6× |
| Flat Tie | $10.00 | $103.39 | 13.6× |
Labouchère and Follow the shoe have no small exact model; the lesson gives their simulated cost.
Why does Martingale feel like it works?
Most series end with a win that recovers the losses, so Martingale wins small amounts often. The rare long losing run costs $1,270 at once (7 bets from $10 to $640), and on Banker the commission means even a late win can leave you slightly behind. Averaged out it is the same 1.06% of everything you bet, on a much bigger total.
Read the full explanation: Martingale, Paroli and friends: what they really cost.
The rules of each system
The systems baccaratton can play for you, with the exact rules it follows:
Flat Banker
One unit on Banker, every hand. The lowest-edge way to play.
- Bet 1 unit on Banker every hand, win or lose.
- Ties push and change nothing.
Lesson: Why the Banker wins more often
Flat Player
One unit on Player, every hand.
- Bet 1 unit on Player every hand, win or lose.
- Ties push and change nothing.
Lesson: Why the Banker wins more often
Flat Tie
One unit on Tie, every hand. Shown for comparison: by far the dearest of the three.
- Bet 1 unit on Tie every hand, win or lose.
Lesson: The Tie bet: 8 to 1 isn't enough
Martingale
Double after every loss, so one win gets everything back. Until a long losing run doesn't.
- Start at 1 unit. After a loss, double the bet: 1, 2, 4, … 64 units.
- After a win, go back to 1 unit. A tie repeats the same bet.
- After 7 losses in a row (or when the next bet is over the table limit), give up the chase and go back to 1 unit.
- On Banker, a win after a long run of losses can still lose money overall, because the commission grows with the bet.
Lesson: Martingale, Paroli and friends: what they really cost
Paroli
Let a win ride up to three times, then start again.
- Start at 1 unit. After a win, double: 1, 2, 4 units.
- After the third win in a row, or after any loss, go back to 1 unit. A tie repeats the same bet.
Lesson: Martingale, Paroli and friends: what they really cost
1-3-2-6
Four steps on a winning run: 1, 3, 2 and 6 units.
- Bet 1, 3, 2, 6 units, moving one step on after each win.
- After the fourth win, or after any loss, go back to 1 unit. A tie repeats the same bet.
Lesson: Martingale, Paroli and friends: what they really cost
Fibonacci
A gentler loss-chaser that walks up the Fibonacci numbers.
- Bets follow 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89 units.
- A loss moves one step forward. A win moves two steps back, never below the first step. A tie repeats the same bet.
- A loss on 89 units goes back to the first step.
Lesson: Martingale, Paroli and friends: what they really cost
D'Alembert
Add a unit after a loss, take one off after a win.
- Start at 1 unit. After a loss, bet 1 unit more. After a win, bet 1 unit less, never below 1.
- The bet never goes over 20 units: at the cap it stays there until a win. A tie repeats the same bet.
Lesson: Martingale, Paroli and friends: what they really cost
Labouchère
Cross numbers off a line: each win removes two, each loss adds one.
- Write the line 1-2-3-4. Bet the first plus the last number (with one number left, bet it).
- A win crosses both numbers off. A loss adds the amount you bet to the end of the line. A tie repeats the same bet.
- When the line is empty, write 1-2-3-4 again.
- A bet over 100 units restarts the line, so the next bet is 5 units.
Lesson: Martingale, Paroli and friends: what they really cost
Follow the shoe
Bet on whichever side won the last decided hand.
- Bet 1 unit on the side that won the last hand that wasn't a tie. Ties are skipped.
- On the first hand of a shoe, bet Banker.
Lesson: Martingale, Paroli and friends: what they really cost
Side-bet sprinkler
A flat Banker bet with small side bets on every hand.
- Bet 1 unit on Banker every hand.
- Add the same small side bets every hand as well (by default $5 on Player Pair and $5 on Banker Pair).