Fibonacci roulette strategy tested: 10,000 simulated sessions on red
Does the Fibonacci system work in roulette? Not against the house edge, which no staking plan changes. Over 10,000 simulated sessions of Fibonacci on red on a European wheel, the average result was -$855.57 a session, against an exact expected loss of $815.37; 56.4% of sessions finished ahead and 40.1% went bust.
Move along the Fibonacci sequence after a loss, back two places after a win. 10,000 sessions of 500 spins, seed 2026. Tags: negative progression
mean -$855.57 ± $68.16 per session · P(ahead) 56.4% · bust 40.1%
The numbers on this page come from a real run of 10,000 sessions of up to 500 spins, $5,000 bankroll, $25 unit, European wheel, saved in the spinner gallery. They are exactly what spinner’s Analyze screen shows for it, with 95% intervals.
Open this run in spinner: charts and every sessionTest your own system
How the stakes move
Next Fibonacci number after a loss, two steps back after a win; 12 steps (1 to 144 units).
One bet each spin, on red, pays 1 to 1. The stake follows the Fibonacci sequence (each number is the sum of the two before it), in units of $25. After a loss it moves one place along the sequence; after a win it moves back 2 places (never before the first).
There are 12 levels, up to 144 units ($3,600). A loss at the top level ends the climb: it goes back to the first stake.
Stakes, level by level: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 units ($25 to $3,600).
The simulation
- Wheel
- European (single zero, 37 pockets)
- Bankroll per session
- $5,000
- Unit (base bet)
- $25
- Spins per session (at most)
- 500
- Sessions simulated
- 10,000
- Pace
- 40 spins an hour
- Table maximum (outside bets)
- $5,000
- Seed
- 2026
Results
| Measure | Value | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|
| Mean net result per session | -$855.57-$923.73 to -$787.41 | -$923.73 to -$787.41 |
| Median net result per session | +$1,600+$1,525 to +$1,650 | +$1,525 to +$1,650 |
| 10th / 90th percentile of the net result | -$5,000 / +$2,525 | |
| Best / worst session | +$3,475 / -$5,000 | |
| Spread (SD) per session | $3,478 | |
| Chance of finishing ahead | 56.4%55.5% to 57.4% | 55.5% to 57.4% |
| Chance of going bust (losing the whole bankroll) | 40.1%39.1% to 41.0% | 39.1% to 41.0% |
| Chance of playing all 500 spins | 59.9%59.0% to 60.9% | 59.0% to 60.9% |
| Expected loss per sessionexact, from the odds of every bet placed | $815.37 | |
| Realized loss per session | $855.57$787.41 to $923.73 | $787.41 to $923.73 |
| Expected loss per hourat 40 spins an hour | $83.88 | |
| House edge: realized vs exactloss as a share of everything wagered | 2.8% vs 2.7%2.6% to 3.1% | 2.6% to 3.1% |
| Mean amount wagered per session | $30,169 | |
| Run luck (z)how far the whole run is from the odds; within ±2 is ordinary | -1.11 |
4,007 bets were rejected (4,007 not enough bankroll) and not played, in 40.1% of sessions: the strategy asked for a stake the remaining bankroll could not cover.
7,603 bets were adjusted to fit the table (clamped, reduced or rounded).
Against Flat on red, run with the same seed and setup: mean result -$855.57 vs -$342.36 a session, finished ahead 56.4% vs 25.9%, went bust 40.1% vs 0.0%, and $30,169 vs $12,500 wagered in an average session.
Risk: drawdowns and bet size
| Measure | Value | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|
| Mean max drawdown (largest fall from a peak) | $3,764$3,723 to $3,804 | $3,723 to $3,804 |
| Median max drawdown | $3,575$3,575 to $3,575 | $3,575 to $3,575 |
| 90th / 99th percentile drawdown | $6,350 / $7,300 | |
| Chance of a drawdown of at least half the bankroll ($2,500) | 58.7%57.7% to 59.7% | 57.7% to 59.7% |
| Mean largest amount on the table | $1,604$1,592 to $1,616 | $1,592 to $1,616 |
| 99th percentile largest amount on the table | $2,225 | |
| Largest amount on the table in any session | $2,300 | |
| Chance of reaching the table maximum ($5,000) | 0.0%0.0% to 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% |
| Mean session lengthmore than half of the sessions played every spin | 389 spins |
Why no progression changes the house edge
Every roulette bet pays a little less than its true odds, because of the zero. On the European wheel used here every bet carries the same edge: 2.7% of each dollar wagered, in every run on this site, whatever the system. A betting system changes only how much you bet and when. Each spin is independent of the ones before it, so no sequence of stakes can change the edge: the expected loss is always the edge times the total amount wagered. In this run an average session wagered $30,169 in total, and the realized loss came to 2.8% of everything wagered, against the exact 2.7%.
What a system does change is the size of the bets, and with it the total wagered and the shape of the results. Raising the stake after a loss puts more money through the wheel, so the expected loss grows with it, and the risk piles up in the long losing streaks that the progression cannot afford. Compare the amount wagered, the bust rate and the drawdowns of each system in the table on the strategies page.