Martingale roulette strategy tested: 10,000 simulated sessions on red
Does the Martingale work in roulette? Not against the house edge, which no staking plan changes. Over 10,000 simulated sessions of Martingale on red on a European wheel, the average result was -$948.44 a session, against an exact expected loss of $939.41; 32.3% of sessions finished ahead and 51.7% went bust.
Double after every loss, back to one unit after a win, capped at 8 steps. 10,000 sessions of 500 spins, seed 2026. Tags: negative progression
mean -$948.44 ± $94.10 per session · P(ahead) 32.3% · bust 51.7%
The numbers on this page come from a real run of 10,000 sessions of up to 500 spins, $5,000 bankroll, $25 unit, European wheel, saved in the spinner gallery. They are exactly what spinner’s Analyze screen shows for it, with 95% intervals.
Open this run in spinner: charts and every sessionTest your own system
How the stakes move
Double after each loss, back to one unit after a win; eight steps ($25 to $3,200), then reset.
One bet each spin, on red, pays 1 to 1. It starts at 1 unit ($25). After each loss the stake is doubled, so one win recovers every loss in the streak plus one starting stake; after a win it goes back to 1 unit ($25).
There are 8 levels, up to 128 units ($3,200). A loss at the top level would need a bigger stake than the plan allows, so it goes back to the first stake, and the losses of that streak stay lost.
Stakes, level by level: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128 units ($25 to $3,200).
The simulation
- Wheel
- European (single zero, 37 pockets)
- Bankroll per session
- $5,000
- Unit (base bet)
- $25
- Spins per session (at most)
- 500
- Sessions simulated
- 10,000
- Pace
- 40 spins an hour
- Table maximum (outside bets)
- $5,000
- Seed
- 2026
Results
| Measure | Value | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|
| Mean net result per session | -$948.44-$1,043 to -$854.34 | -$1,043 to -$854.34 |
| Median net result per session | -$5,000-$5,000 to -$5,000 | -$5,000 to -$5,000 |
| 10th / 90th percentile of the net result | -$5,000 / +$6,225 | |
| Best / worst session | +$7,025 / -$5,000 | |
| Spread (SD) per session | $4,801 | |
| Chance of finishing ahead | 32.3%31.4% to 33.2% | 31.4% to 33.2% |
| Chance of going bust (losing the whole bankroll) | 51.7%50.7% to 52.7% | 50.7% to 52.7% |
| Chance of playing all 500 spins | 48.3%47.3% to 49.3% | 47.3% to 49.3% |
| Expected loss per sessionexact, from the odds of every bet placed | $939.41 | |
| Realized loss per session | $948.44$854.34 to $1,043 | $854.34 to $1,043 |
| Expected loss per hourat 40 spins an hour | $111.31 | |
| House edge: realized vs exactloss as a share of everything wagered | 2.7% vs 2.7%2.4% to 3.0% | 2.4% to 3.0% |
| Mean amount wagered per session | $34,758 | |
| Run luck (z)how far the whole run is from the odds; within ±2 is ordinary | -0.18 |
5,171 bets were rejected (5,171 not enough bankroll) and not played, in 51.7% of sessions: the strategy asked for a stake the remaining bankroll could not cover.
9,577 bets were adjusted to fit the table (clamped, reduced or rounded).
Against Flat on red, run with the same seed and setup: mean result -$948.44 vs -$342.36 a session, finished ahead 32.3% vs 25.9%, went bust 51.7% vs 0.0%, and $34,758 vs $12,500 wagered in an average session.
Risk: drawdowns and bet size
| Measure | Value | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|
| Mean max drawdown (largest fall from a peak) | $5,490$5,447 to $5,532 | $5,447 to $5,532 |
| Median max drawdown | $5,950$5,900 to $6,025 | $5,900 to $6,025 |
| 90th / 99th percentile drawdown | $7,975 / $9,775 | |
| Chance of a drawdown of at least half the bankroll ($2,500) | 90.2%89.6% to 90.8% | 89.6% to 90.8% |
| Mean largest amount on the table | $2,814$2,803 to $2,826 | $2,803 to $2,826 |
| 99th percentile largest amount on the table | $3,200 | |
| Largest amount on the table in any session | $3,200 | |
| Chance of reaching the table maximum ($5,000) | 0.0%0.0% to 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% |
| Mean session lengthhalf of the sessions had ended by spin 471 | 338 spins |
Why no progression changes the house edge
Every roulette bet pays a little less than its true odds, because of the zero. On the European wheel used here every bet carries the same edge: 2.7% of each dollar wagered, in every run on this site, whatever the system. A betting system changes only how much you bet and when. Each spin is independent of the ones before it, so no sequence of stakes can change the edge: the expected loss is always the edge times the total amount wagered. In this run an average session wagered $34,758 in total, and the realized loss came to 2.7% of everything wagered, against the exact 2.7%.
What a system does change is the size of the bets, and with it the total wagered and the shape of the results. Raising the stake after a loss puts more money through the wheel, so the expected loss grows with it, and the risk piles up in the long losing streaks that the progression cannot afford. Compare the amount wagered, the bust rate and the drawdowns of each system in the table on the strategies page.